Hays Research for the Jake Metcalfe campaign (3/10/08 – 3/12/08):
Jake Metcalfe (D): 45%
Don Young (R-inc): 37%Democratic Nominee: 41%
Don Young (R-inc): 34%
MoE: ±4.9%
Let’s see, counting this poll, that’s one, two, three, four surveys in a row showing crumb-bum Young trailing his Democratic challengers.
At this point, the biggest danger for Democrats lies in Lt. Governor Sean Parnell’s primary challenge against Young.
(Hat-tip: TPM EC)
places like Alaska and Idaho, we think we will get a miracle pickup in deep red! Unfortunately all the local Reps do is run a primary and bounce the unpopular Rep out and than win the general. This happened in the AK Guv race with Murkowski getting bounced in the primary and than our Tony Knowles went down big against the replacement. I am sure the same dynamic will play out in the AK Senate and House and the Idaho Senate. The same thing happens to our advantage in one party Democratic house seats!
If Palin is swinging for the fences against Young — and I would assume she is, there’s no payoff in making a half-hearted effort against Young — then she stands an extremely good chance of winning. And Parnell vs Berkowitz would be a great race, but will break our hearts in November I’m quite sure.
The only silver lining I see is that there’s no obvious similar challenge in the works for Stevens. So maybe we beat Stevens and lose to Parnell? I can certainly imagine that taking on both Young and Stevens would be too much for even Palin to pull off in one cycle, and that she appears to have chosen Young instead of Stevens to fight is a good thing for the national Democratic picture.
Of course, maybe she’s just counting on the DOJ to edge Stevens out for her. : (